Earthquake overdue - ODPEM says island has had no major tremor in 100 years
By Jamaica Observer
Fri, 18 Jan 2008, 08:59
Source: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/html/20080117T160000-0500_131494_OBS_EARTHQUAKE_OVERDUE___ODPEM.asp
The Office of Disaster Preparedness & Emergency Management (ODPEM) on Wednesday warned that a serious earthquake in Jamaica is overdue, saying that the country has not had a major tremor in 100 years - the limit for the return period, according to scientists.
This, even though the island experiences about 200 quakes both on and offshore each year.
"We're overdue an earthquake. The last major earthquake we had was in 1907," ODPEM's training manager, Cheryl Nicholls, told the Observer.
"Yes, we had one in 1957 and we've had one in 1993. These could have been considered to be moderate, but in terms of the damage that we have experienced in the last couple of years, the 1907 one is the strongest we've had in recent years," Nicholls said.
"This year marks 101 years since we've had that earthquake and scientists theorise that earthquakes have a return period of anywhere between 80 and 100 years. That puts us right within the period between which we can safely say we are overdue,"
Nicholls was speaking against the background of Wednesday's earthquake awareness day in schools and the open-day hosted by ODPEM in observance of earthquake awareness week. She impressed upon students from primary and secondary level schools in Kingston who attended the annual open day, the importance of preparing, especially given the island's "overdue" status.
"We are by no means saying that today, tomorrow or a day from now we will have an earthquake. What we're saying is that as a nation and as a people, we need to be prepared because the reality is that we are within close proximity to the active North American plate and the active Caribbean plate and that has implications for us as a region and as a country.
"Jamaica has fault lines extending across all 14 parishes, which means an earthquake can originate from anywhere at any particular point during the day or the night," she said.
The great Kingston earthquake of 1907 caused more than 1,000 deaths, damaged numerous buildings and started several fires. Prior to that, the most damaging earthquake to have affected Jamaica occurred in 1692 and was responsible for roughly 5,000 deaths from the quake itself and a subsequent outbreak of yellow fever. A section of Port Royal now sits at the bottom of the sea as a result of that earthquake.
"I shudder to think what would happen if an earthquake the magnitude of the 1907 one were to happen today," said ODPEM's information and training director, Krechet Douglas-Greaves.
Her concerns were based on Kingston's dense population, the age and type of its buildings and the number of persons who occupy small spaces, as is evident in New Kingston and inner-city areas. She also expressed concern for the municipality of Portmore which, she said, was a prime target for tsunamis because the majority of the land on which it sits was reclaimed from swamps and, to some extent, the sea.
"We can't afford the nation to lull itself into complacency and that is one of the reasons for the open day," she said. "The overall aim is to build a culture of preparedness and the best way is to start when the minds are young."
While it acknowledges that more can be done to ensure the country's readiness for an earthquake, the agency says it has some systems in place to minimize the potential fatalities arising from such a disaster.
"We have our message-handling system, an earthquake plan, a Ministry of Health plan, a fire plan and our partner agencies who help us...[Also], there is a working Portmore evacuation plan and we are conscious of the fact that Portmore has traffic congestion problems, so we also have a traffic management plan which incorporates the services of the JUTC. That would help us to get out a number of persons within the shortest possible time to avoid the build-up from using individual vehicles," Nicholls asserted.
Added to the normal preparedness efforts however, Douglas-Greaves said there should be an emphasis on nutrition since food would be inaccessible if buildings collapse.