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Last Updated: Jan 17th, 2007 - 13:40:55 |
Tortola, Jan 17, 2007 (DDM) – The Colorado State University team of forecasters led by Phillip Klotzbach, has issued predictions for the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season. “Information obtained through November 2006 indicates that the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be more active than the average 1950-2000 season; we estimate 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes of category 3, 4, or 5.” says Mr. Klotzbach. The predictions also outlined a 64% probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States and an above average chance of a major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.
Klotzbatch also stated that the Atlantic basin is in an active hurricane cycle, despite the calm 2006 season, which was attributed to unexpected El Nino conditions. “We expect current El Nino conditions to dissipate by the active part of the 2007 hurricane season,” Klotzbatch added.
El Nino is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that affects the Eastern Atlantic by changing wind patterns and can also disrupt the formation of hurricanes. In spite of El Nino conditions last year, the season was considered to be a near normal, falling short of the early 2006 predictions which called for 14-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 intense hurricanes. The 2006 season concluded with 9 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
Based on the above normal prediction of the 2007 hurricane season, the public is being advised to be prepared early. Even though the 2006 season was not as active as expected one cannot forget the devastation caused by the 2005 season. That season accounted for 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.
With the Caribbean forecast to have an above-average major hurricane landfall risk this year, it is imperative that the people of the BVI keep hurricane preparedness in the forefront. Ensure that each household is armed with the knowledge to make the necessary preparations to combat the expected fury of the 2007 hurricane season. Hurricane preparedness material can be obtained from the Department of Disaster Management.
Contact:
Natasha Lettsome,
Information Training Manager
Telephone: (284) 494-4499
E-Mail: nlettsome@gov.vg
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