BARBADOS AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN OUTLOOK

Residual moisture associated with the tropical wave will continue to spread some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southern islands tonight and into tomorrow. A dense layer of Sahara dust associated with this wave will probably lessen deep shower activity over these islands. Meanwhile the northern islands will continue to enjoy generally fair and hazy weather conditions tonight and early tomorrow. However, fair conditions will be short-lived over these islands(the north) as models suggest that the weak wave near 47°W will increase instability and showers by late tomorrow.Thereafter, as the upper level Atlantic ridge expands across the chain a strong upper level southerly flow will pull ITCZ moisture northwards on Sunday. This will allow for higher moisture levels over the region and increase showers over Barbados and the southern Windwards. By Monday, a building ridge pattern will begin to once again re-establish itself across the chain and this will allow for a drying trend. A temporary marginally reduction in surface winds is anticipated tomorrow (averaging 15knots) however by Sunday and into early next weekend easterly to east southeasterly breezes averaging fifteen to twenty knots will sustain wave heights in the vicinity of 2.5m. The layer of dust haze will persist, varying in intensity over the weekend however it is not expected to lift out of the area until early next week.