BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

WEATHER SUMMARY: Wednesday 01st September 2010

TROPICAL SYSTEMS

At 1100 am the eye of Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 25.1° north longitude 72.1°west. Earl is moving towards the northwest near 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue today with a gradual turn to the north on Thursday. On this forecast track the core of the hurricane will continue to move well east and northeast of the Bahamas today and tonight and will approach the North Carolina coast by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph with higher gusts.  Earl is a category three hurricane on the saffir-simpson scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles.

At 1100 am the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 18.8° north longitude 61.7° west. Fiona is moving towards the northwest near 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a turn toward the north-northwest and a decrease in forward speed expected by late Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Fiona passed north of the northern Leeward Islands today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts. Some slight increase in strength is possible during the next day or so with weakening expected by late Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles mostly to the northeast of the center.

At 1100 am the center of Tropical Depression nine was located near latitude 12.4° north longitude 35.8° west. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph. The cyclone should move towards the west or west-northwest at a slower forward speed during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and it is likely that the cyclone will become a tropical storm during the next 48 hours.

BARBADOS AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN OUTLOOK

Tropical Storm Fiona currently located along lat 20.3°N 63.3°W or about 60 miles north of Barbuda will maintain tropical storm force activity across the northern Leeward Islands during the next 18 to 24 hours. As a consequence expect moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms to accompany the passage of the storm. Some shower and thunderstorms activity from feeder bands associated with the storm will occur over the southern Leeward and northern Windward Islands during this period. Forecast models still show a ridge of high pressure digging in across the region. This will bring some dry air into the area and cause some reduction in the moisture available for significant shower activity here in Barbados and the southern Windward Islands for the next few days. As the ridge expands and tightens the pressure gradient, winds speeds will increase and the dry air will spread across the entire region by late Thursday night and induce a gradual return to similar conditions over the northern islands. At the upper levels during this time interval, model data indicate that a trough and TUTT low will move westward towards the region. This feature, which continues to be reflected through the atmosphere, will slacken the gradient across the region, reduce wind speeds and create an environment for some shower activity over the weekend.

An analysis of the model data at this time does suggest that tropical depression nine will strengthen and pass across the Lesser Antilles as a tropical cyclone. At its current forward speed, this system will approach the area by Monday. However this system will be closely monitored by the Meteorological Office here at the Airport.

 CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OUTLOOK:

Tropical Storm Fiona is still expected to pass northeast of Puerto Rico and the local islands, however this area will receive fringe effects mainly in the form of increased moisture later tonight and this will linger Thursday. This moisture will combine with local effects tonight through Thursday and produce some cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms. For Friday and Saturday although drier conditions are expected, the lingering moisture will combine with the local effects and produce some cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms over sections of Puerto Rico and the local islands each afternoon. Hurricane Earl will bring some unstable weather conditions over the Bahamas. While a relatively dry and stable air mass will remain over Jamaica and Cuba. The light wind regime generated over this area by Hurricane Earl over these islands will produce some afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

BARBADOS (4-DAY) MARINE FORECAST VALID  Sept 02nd  - Sept 05th 2010     --